Pro Football Odds 1×2
Pro Football Odds 1×2
The next step after finishing the Pro football odds calculations is to identify profitable pleaser subgroups. Let’s say that after comparing prices, we think that the Patriots +13.5 is a fair deal at -105. Our break even point for placing a pro football odd on the Patriots straight at -105 is 105/205, or 51.22%.
To determine whether a pro bet on the Patriots in a two team tie win pleaser makes more sense than a straight pro football odd, we compare the 37.79% break even percentage of a leg in a two team six point tie lose pleaser with the 51.22% needed for a straight bet. The difference is 13.43%. Is the decrease in likelihood of winning brought on by going from +13.5 to +7.5 less than 13.43%? If such, betting on the Patriots directly yields a lower expectation than using them as a pro soccer odd.
At this point, things about pro soccer odds start to get tricky. To complete our calculations, we need to know how often teams around +13.5 push at 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 13 points. You’ll need NFL pro football odds data, which the majority of wise gamblers have accumulated, to accomplish this. Atsdatabase.com is one location where you may access this information for a reasonable price as many readers won’t already have it.
Instead of using my own data for pro soccer odds analysis, I’ll use ATSDatabase. I copied and pasted their data into an excel spreadsheet and discovered that there have been 642 point spreads between 10.5 and 16.5 points since 1983. The frequency of each significant margin of victory is as follows based on this information: 13 points, 2.2%, 12, 1.0%, 11, 2.4%, 10, 3.6%, 9, 1.9%, and 8 points. When I sum them all up, I get a pro football odd percentage of 12.6%.
